Here’s Your No Bullshit Guide To Figuring Out Which 4 Teams Are Making The College Football Playoff
The official College Football Playoff rankings were released last night. There are no real surprises here considering the only top 10 team to lose a game last week was Michigan, but that doesn’t mean they’re not vastly important. Below are the last CFP rankings we’ll see from the committee before the College Football Playoff Final Four teams are announced.
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Colorado
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma State
I said this would be a “no bullshit guide,” and I mean it. I know you’re busy studying and taking notes and dabbing on hoes (or whatever you college kids do these days), so I’m just going to give you the scenario each team needs in order to earn a CFP berth (barring some unforeseen circumstances/the committee going rogue) and any other pertinent information.
1. Alabama
What they need to do to make the playoff: Beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Just kidding! They can lose that game and probably still make the playoff because Alabama is going to win it all like always and we’re foolish for thinking otherwise, even for a second. There’s almost no point in even having a playoff as long as Nick Saban is among the living (if he’s even human to begin with).
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for Bama: 99%
2. Ohio State
What they need to do to make the playoff: Considering their season is over, there’s not really anything they can do. They just need to sit back and hope for a few things.
a) That the committee doesn’t make this the year the CFP decides to put extra emphasis on conference championships.
b) That Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship Game. Having beaten Ohio State, Penn State has a much stronger case to take a playoff spot away from tOSU than Wisconsin does should Alabama, Clemson, and Washington all win their games (Wisco lost to tOSU in overtime). If Wisconsin wins the B1G Championship Game, it’s hard to imagine a reality in which Ohio State doesn’t make the playoff — unless the scenario referenced in a) happens.
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for tOSU: 93%
3. Clemson
What they need to do to make the playoff: Beat Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. If they win, they’re in. If they lose, they’re out. Simple as that.
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for Clemson: 75%
4. Washington
What they need to do to make the playoff: Beat Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship Game and hope that the committee doesn’t put the winner of the B1G Championship Game in over them (which I don’t see happening, considering a 2-loss team hasn’t been ranked above Washington all season long).
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for Washington: 70%
5. Michigan
What they need to do to make the playoff: Like Ohio State, there is nothing that Michigan themselves can do to earn a playoff bid — except Michigan’s path is much more difficult and seemingly ill-fated.
Their only hope at getting into the playoff through the back door is if Clemson and Washington both lose, meaning the B1G champ would most likely jump to the #3 spot and Michigan has an outside shot at grabbing the #4 spot (meaning, yes, there would be three Big Ten teams in the College Football Playoff).
Other 2-loss teams who would be competing for that #4 spot in this scenario, however? The Pac-12 champion Colorado Buffaloes (Sko Buffs!) and the Big 12 champion Sooners/Cowboys. Considering how the committee likes to emphasize conference championships (see tOSU’s admittance into the inaugural playoff), I don’t see a legitimate route by which the committee can stick a 2-loss non-champ Michigan into the Playoff over a 2-loss conference champion in Colorado/the Big 12 champ. If you put Michigan into the playoff, though, you get the Michigan fan base’s money, so let’s not give the committee too much credit here.
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for Michigan: 3%
6. Wisconsin
What they need to do to make the playoff: Logic says that the Wisconsin Badgers should make the College Football Playoff with a win over Penn State this weekend and at least one of the following: a Washington loss, a Clemson loss. Out of those 2 possible scenarios, the only one in which the Badgers have real playoff spot competition is that Washington loss, because that would mean 10-2 Colorado finished out the season with a championship and a top 4 victory whereas Wisconsin will have done so with a championship as well, but only over a top-7 opponent. Could the Buffs jump the Badge? Unlikely, but possible. Everyone loves a Cinderella story (except Wisconsinites, in this exact possible future).
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for Wisconsin: 34%
7. Penn State
What they need to do to make the playoff: Everything I just said about Wisconsin, except for Penn State (who, again, has that absurd outside shot at knocking tOSU out of the playoff with Alabama, Clemson, and Washington victories).
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for PSU: 36%
8. Colorado
What they need to do to make the playoff: Beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game and have Clemson lose the ACC Championship Game. This should assure that the Buffs nab the #4 spot unless the committee, for some reason, decides to stick an unimpressive Big 12 champ or Michigan in over them. Technically the Buffs could jump Wisconsin for that 4 spot if Clemson wins the ACC title game, but it’s unlikely.
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for Colorado: 19%
9. Oklahoma/10. Oklahoma State
What they need to do to make the playoff: Win the Bedlam game against this weekend and hope that the committee is full of a bunch of morons who would stick the champion of the worst power 5 conference with a comparatively unimpressive conference championship victory over Pac-12 champion Colorado for the 4th spot in a Final Four that looks like this: Alabama, Ohio State, Wisconsin/Penn State, Big 12 champ. Not gonna happen.
J-Bone’s Playoff Percentage for the Big 12 champion: <1% It's only fitting that the craziest season of college football in recent memory will have an even crazier post-season, and we're all lucky to be along for the ride. Oh yeah, and go Badge..
For more college football BS from the TFM team, check out our college football podcast Back Door Cover, which features my award-eligible segment “The Bone Zone.” Listen to the latest episode on Soundcloud below (The Bone Zone starts at 50:29), and get the pod sent right to your phone when it’s piping hot by subscribing on iTunes.
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I think you underestimate the chance of Michigan getting in over the big ten champ if Washington or Clemson loses. It would be unfair, but some analysts think it might happen
8 years ago at 11:09 amI think 3% is fair. The committee emphasizes conference championships enough to where I can’t see them sticking two Big Ten teams in unless one is a conference champion.
8 years ago at 11:22 amIt’s hard to say what the committee emphasizes because the playoffs are so new. There’s never really been a scenario like this. The closest was 2014 but Ohio state won the big ten championship 59-0 (sorry Jared) so they proved themselves in the championship game. If penn st and Wisconsin play a close game, I wouldn’t be surprised (or upset) if they put Michigan over the winner
8 years ago at 11:27 amThe precedent that sets — undermining every single conference’s championship game by making it meaningless in some cases (and thus less profitable/prestigious for the conferences) — is not one the CFP nor the conferences want.
8 years ago at 11:30 amI agree but the fact that penn st lost to Michigan by 39 might outweigh the conference championship. The committee has consistently said they only look at conference championships when they think the margin between two teams is “razor thin”. 49-10 is not razor thin. 14-7, however, might be.
8 years ago at 11:37 am49-10 isn’t razor thin, but Penn State has won every game since the Michigan game, beating both the teams that Michigan lost to — Iowa and Ohio State — in the process. Kinda takes the oomph out of that argument.
8 years ago at 11:55 amI don’t think that erases a 39 point loss, but we’ll see what the committee thinks. All I’m saying is Michigan’s chances are greater than 3%. Either way, go Buffs and Hokies
8 years ago at 11:59 amI think one of the biggest issues with CFB is we like to look at a team as static/consistent thought the entire season. When PSU played Michigan, they had several injuries, not to mention only the 4th game (and first or 2nd real opponent) for both a new OC and DC still getting used to the system at PSU. I’m not saying PSU would necessarily have won, but it definitely would have been closer.
8 years ago at 12:12 pmI’ve heard this take a bunch of times and it really is a terrible one. it’d be like discounting the Ohio state trouncing of Oklahoma at the beginning of the season because OSU was OU’s first ‘real game.’ Or bumping Okie St. over PSU since OKST has one unfair lost and beat Penn state in the mutual opponents category. Penn States out. they’re out. they don’t get in. it’s over. go home.
8 years ago at 12:57 pmI’ve heard you still work for this site, and honestly it’s terrible
8 years ago at 4:58 pmGo back to eating boogers and being bitterly disappointed
8 years ago at 12:13 pmFuck, OSU. That being said I hope the committee does put an emphasis on conference championships because they don’t deserve to make it. They are a top 10 team maybe. Dodging a 4 loss season by the hair on my nuts.
8 years ago at 11:14 amPussies.
8 years ago at 11:41 amYou must have negative brain cells if a team should be punished for winning a game close. Drink bleach
8 years ago at 12:15 pmI feel more comfortable hearing it from siblings
8 years ago at 11:27 amThere is a 0.0 percent chance Wisconsin makes it. None what so ever. The Michigan OSU matchup scored almost a 4x higher rating than OSU Wisconsin, which, aside from the Michigan game, was by far Wisconsin’s most watched game of the season.
Wisconsin lost to both OSU and Michigan, is probably the 6th strongest “brand” in its own conference, and after the playoff committee dealt with the massacre of ratings that was MSU Alabama last season, they will fold up shop before they allow that sort of matchup again. Unless Wisconsin seriously beats penn state by 30+ they’re out.
If Washington and or CLEMSON loses they’ll throw Michigan in, though they’ve lost two of their last three games which is fucking absurd, because harbaugh v Saban would be a super bowl of financial windfall for the NCAA and the respective conferences.
And Michigan will get fucking killed.
8 years ago at 12:12 pmMichigan has no place in the college football playoffs.
8 years ago at 1:11 pmSo Wisconsin is going for sure
8 years ago at 1:57 pmYou can buy a ticket to this weekend’s Big Ten title game on stub hub for 15 dollars. There are thousands not sold. Last weekend’s U of M vs. OSU game did not have a single ticket available for less than 267 dollars the wednesday before the game.
The NCAA is NOT about “student athletes” and “Academic opportunity.” It is about money. This is why Wisconsin is hopeless for the playoff, as is PSU. A second Big Ten team adds NOTHING to the playoffs aside from Harbaugh and Michigan since his antics have made him a star and they still claim to be the “winningest” program ever.
Oklahoma brings an elite offense, superstar qb and gets the Big 12 in the mix. Washington is a completely new part of the map tuning into the game. There’s is not a path for the Badgers.
8 years ago at 5:41 pmMichigan doesn’t need to “claim” anything. It is a FACT that Michigan is the winningest program ever
8 years ago at 8:17 pmHarbaugh’s antics have made him a star? Not his instant turnaround and success at multiple stops?
8 years ago at 10:26 pmMichigan’s losses came on the road on a game winning field goal, and a double OT questionable loss against the #2 team in the country, on the road. I don’t see how any 2 losses could get much closer than that. Yes, they lost 2 or the last 3, but you cannot sit there and tell me that Michigan shouldn’t get in over PSU or WIS regardless. But, we will probably be proven our gut feelings this year when Washington is in and gets destroyed by Bama. Gut feeling being that a team like Washington has no business being where they are. Sure, they won some games, but they will get buttfucked to Jupiter by Alabama.
8 years ago at 3:04 pmPretty sure Ohio St is rooting for PSU in the B1G championship as it only makes their lone loss in happy valley on the road look better if it was to the conference champs
8 years ago at 11:28 amThat’s looking at it from a tOSU perspective. Penn State fans will say a Big Ten win makes their resume better than Ohio State’s. And if you look at head-to-head and the fact that they won the Big Ten, I don’t outright disagree.
8 years ago at 11:35 amAlabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Michigan
Wisconsin beats Penn State, Colorado beats Washington, and the NCAA goes with the biggest draws
8 years ago at 11:54 amWouldn’t surprise me.
8 years ago at 11:57 amThe CFP is a joke if Michigan still gets in.
8 years ago at 12:01 pmFellow underboy here btw
My man!
8 years ago at 1:24 pmYou must be desperate for friends! Have your mom call me and we’ll arrange a Play Date for you and Andrew!
8 years ago at 4:07 pmIf we didn’t learn anything from last year Ohio State is pretty much the only team talent and depth wise that can keep up with Bama maybe Clemson too. If you think otherwise you’re bias or don’t know college football.
8 years ago at 12:13 pmDidn’t we learn last year Clemson pushed them to the absolute limit?
8 years ago at 12:48 pmYou underestimate Washington, sir. It’s new year, and they’re a new team.
8 years ago at 1:08 pmRoll Tide
8 years ago at 12:38 pmHey dumbfuck, you used the wrong sign for the big 12 champion
8 years ago at 12:40 pmWhere?
8 years ago at 1:22 pm<
8 years ago at 4:20 pmFixed.
8 years ago at 12:23 pmIt’s sad USC hadn’t started its hot streak earlier we’re really one of the top contenders for a playoff game right now
8 years ago at 12:55 pmIn my opinion, USC is the 2nd best team in the country right now. Was hoping Colorado would lose to Utah to potentially open the door if SC beat Washington.
8 years ago at 1:09 pm