The Degenerate’s Guide To Gambling On The First Three Rounds Of The NCAA Tournament
One of the best weeks on the sports calendar is upon us. Even if you’re not a college basketball guy, it’s real hard not to get excited about the Thursday through Sunday gambling fiesta that is the rounds of 64 and 32 (because the NCAA decided to expand the bracket to 68 from 65, it’s now technically the first three rounds). Scrolling through the bracket, I see a few upsets that I really like, whether it’s because teams are coming into the tournament hot, cold, seeded poorly, or tournament-hardened. We’ll go through each region leading up to its Sweet Sixteen matchups, highlighting the games you should be putting that hard-earned money on. Let’s get to it.
Per usual, the lines provided are from our friends at MyBookie.ag
East Region
The East region has the top seeded number one and reigning national champion Villanova Wildcats. They also have what some consider the top number two seed, Duke, which many have chalked up to seeding by geography rather than merit. Either way, I’m going to put money down on one upset in this bracket, but two wouldn’t be out of the question. Some are saying that UNC Wilmington (+335) over Virginia is a good bet, because Virginia can’t score. Not a bad idea, but Virginia has gone through the tough ACC and UNC Wilmington isn’t going to throw anything at them that they haven’t seen before.
My upset pick in this bracket is going to be ETSU (+420) over Florida. Florida has looked like absolute shit at the end of the season, bowing out early in the SEC tournament. They lost their big man, which is troubling against ETSU, who is aggressive offensively and gets to the foul line. The return on this bet is great; do it ASAP. In the round of 32, I’m taking SMU to beat Baylor. SMU is a veteran team who plays complete basketball, and Baylor has been notoriously up and down all year. I think the more seasoned team gets it done and advances to the Sweet Sixteen.
The bets: ETSU over Florida (+420), SMU over Baylor (N/A)
West Region
The West region has both Gonzaga and Arizona, two teams that I personally hold in high regard. Though they’re my school’s rival, I have a ton of respect for Arizona in this tournament, as you’ll find out. I have this bracket as chalk, sans one game. I’m going to pick Xavier over Maryland in the Six-Eleven game. According to the stats guys, Xavier is criminally underseeded, and Maryland is another team who hasn’t looked great down the stretch. Six over Eleven isn’t a crazy pick, especially when looking at the line (+115). The Big Ten is not a great conference, so I expect Maryland to be one of the many Big Ten teams to make the tournament, but fall out in the first couple rounds. I’m also going to take Xavier to beat FSU in the round of 32, making a Sweet Sixteen appearance against Arizona.
The bet: Xavier over Maryland (+115), Xavier over FSU (N/A)
Midwest Region
I would consider the Midwest to be the weakest piece of this year’s bracket. Kansas is a strong one, but they also just lost in the first round of the conference tournament. Louisville wasn’t even supposed to be a two seed, but here they are. In this bracket, I have two lower seeds pushing past the round of 64. I’m taking Rhode Island over Creighton in the Six-Eleven game, and Oklahoma State over Michigan in the Seven-Ten game. I personally think the Oklahoma State-Michigan game is going to be one of the best games in the round of 64, as both teams were absolutely on fire down the stretch. Oklahoma State was dead in the water by mid-season, then went on an absolute tear. Michigan just won the Big Ten in their practice jerseys, and is going to be the trendy pick to make some noise because of the national attention they’ve received. That tells me that the line is going to start leaning to toward Oklahoma State, which is fantastic. Rams and Cowboys, do it.
The bet: Oklahoma State over Michigan (+125), Rhode Island over Creighton (Pick ‘Em)
South Region
The South region is the region of Blue Bloods, housing UNC, Kentucky, and UCLA. It also hosts dangerous teams like Arkansas and Wichita State. Wichita State has become the darling of the talking heads on TV because of their absolutely criminal underseeding. That being said, I’m going to ride that wagon for a bit. Dayton is a tough team with great coaching, but Wichita State is going to make solid work of them in the first round, in the very rare case where the lower seed is a huge favorite (-270), and I’m actually going to take the Two-Ten upset in the round of 32, having Wichita State advancing to the Sweet Sixteen to play UCLA.
As you noticed in the previous regions, I am not very high on the Big Ten. Another early exit by that conference should come by way of Minnesota. I’m picking Middle Tennessee State to take out the Gophers in the Five-Twelve game (Pick ‘Em). MTSU is battle-tested in the tournament, shocking Michigan State last year. They were ranked at 25 in the country, and were seeded at 12 in their region — seems like a recipe for an upset.
The bet: MTSU over Minnesota (Pick ‘Em), Wichita State over Dayton (-270), Wichita State over Kentucky (N/A).
Image via Shutterstock
I hate people like you who refer to the play-in games as the 1st Round, and the actual 1st Round games as “Round 2”
8 years ago at 11:47 amI actually hate it, too. It was more to avoid criticism from you fucks.
8 years ago at 11:58 amHow’d that work out for ya?
8 years ago at 12:23 pmYou and I both should know by now that I’d be fucked no matter what I said.
8 years ago at 2:30 pmYou hold Gonzaga in high regard? Listen up chief…. No team whose best player is a big dumb pollack is making the final four.
8 years ago at 11:48 amDon’t have them in the Final Four, chief.
8 years ago at 11:57 amMy bad. I stopped reading after that asinine take.
8 years ago at 2:20 pmNot so asinine to hold a 32-1 team in high regard.
8 years ago at 2:52 pmI played baseball at a school in their conference. I honestly don’t think you know how bad their competition is…
8 years ago at 7:03 pmAny team that goes 32-1 is a good fucking team. Add in the fact that they are in probably the weakest bracket, and they should have no problem getting to the Final Four
8 years ago at 3:09 pmGonzaga will lose to Arizona. You can count on that, Bobby
8 years ago at 3:14 pmArizona is getting bounced by St. Mary’s. Defense wins games in the tournament, and St Mary’s has probably the best defense in the tournament, and matches up well offensively.
8 years ago at 3:22 pmSaint Mary’s might have the best defense in the west coast conference or whatever tiny little conference they play in, but Arizona’s is one of the best defensive teams in the country. Sean Miller teams are known for their defense year in and year out
8 years ago at 9:03 pmU of A is going to the Final Four. We’re on the same page there.
8 years ago at 5:43 pmPrinceton has won 19 straight, Ivy League or not they’re a good team. I think they can upset Notre Dame.
8 years ago at 11:58 amTook that pick in both my brackets.
8 years ago at 3:59 pmTake the point spread of Gonzaga and South Dakota State
8 years ago at 12:11 pmYou’re getting downvoted but that’s a good move. Gonzaga led in ATS around 85% all season. MTSU would also be a good pick ATS as they were up there also.
8 years ago at 9:17 pmThere’s a reason why Michigan is the “trendy pick to make some noise”. It’s not because of the national attention. It’s because they won 4 games in 4 days, 3 against tournament teams. They’ve won 9 of 11 and the two losses were a buzzer beater and an OT loss – both on the road. Have fun losing money on Oklahoma St
8 years ago at 12:39 pmGood points, Coach. Michigan also has the second highest NCAA tournament winning percentage of any team since the Fab 5. Betting against a team that just beat a 4, 5, and 8 seed in 3 consecutive days is crazy. The NCAA tournament is all about who’s hot, healthy, and matchups. Michigan doesn’t have a single major injury, could not be playing better at the moment, and has the “someday this will be an ESPN 30/30 movie” momentum from the plane crash/takeoff mess last week.
That said, I think Louisville beats them in the round of 32 as a nightmarish matchup defensively. Way too much length and Walton can’t be the sole ball handler against that press for 40 mins.
8 years ago at 3:30 pmI agree Louisville will be a tough matchup but it would be such sweet revenge for the 2013 title game (fuck that “foul” call on Trey Burke). Walton is definitely our best ball handler but Simpson and MAAR have been getting better and better at handling pressure all season. Plus, I don’t think Louisville’s bigs will be able to stop our front court with Wagner and Wilson. If we do get past them, then we’ll get an injury-plagued Oregon team and then a Kansas team that just lost to TCU on a neutral court. Don’t be surprised if our experience and wide array of weapons carry us to the final four
8 years ago at 4:15 pmSo what Sibs is telling me is to fade Michigan.
8 years ago at 5:42 pmAmen
8 years ago at 7:57 pmI need to know what sibs picks are so I can fade them.
8 years ago at 1:09 pmDuke Vs North Carolina finals matchup
8 years ago at 1:47 pmLook for Rhode Island to be the cinderella team this year. They’re coming in blazing hot, and are coming out of probably the best non-power 5 conference (excluding the Big East). Very stingy on defense, solid offense to back it up. Don’t be surprised if they make a big run
8 years ago at 3:14 pmOther teams that could have big first round upsets or deep runs: Middle Tennessee (upset), Wichita State (deep run), Cincinnati (deep run), Butler (deep run), Vermont (upset/deep run), Nevada (upset), Princeton (upset), and St. Mary’s (deep run)
8 years ago at 3:19 pmMTSU runs what UF practices against every day. Not saying it won’t happen but it’s not as hot of an upset pick as everyone seems to think.
8 years ago at 11:55 pmWhere are sibs picks at?
8 years ago at 7:27 pmLast second tinkering for the round of 64 and 32. Princeton over ND, WVU making it past either one.
8 years ago at 10:36 am